Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

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Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

Rob Trahms
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Re: Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

tomw
The article says present cost is about $2000/kWh for both types of cells, but cost from evcomponents for TS or SE high energy density cells (~100Wh/kg) is $1.10/Ah or about $344/Wh i.e. $198/(3.2V*180Ah).  Halving the above cost to $1000/kWh would be a large price increase.

Tom


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Re: Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

Rob Trahms

I noticed that too - I can't explain that discrepancy.  I wouldn't get too bogged down in the actual numbers, since this is an trade organization projection that is probably not correlated at all to Sky's current battery prices.

My main takeaways from this article are:
1) Lithium is projected to be the dominant automotive battery chemistry until 2030.
2) There is a significant industry ramp-up in efforts to both increase energy density and decrease cost.
3) The acceleration of this effort is going to help prices come down sooner rather than later or never.

My hope is that the 50% cost reduction mentioned eventually translates to all battery manufacturers, including Sky Energy, but the jury is still out on that one!

Rob

tomofreno wrote
The article says present cost is about $2000/kWh for both types of cells, but cost from evcomponents for TS or SE high energy density cells (~100Wh/kg) is $1.10/Ah or about $344/Wh i.e. $198/(3.2V*180Ah).  Halving the above cost to $1000/kWh would be a large price increase.

Tom


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Re: Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

Lee Hart
Rob Trahms wrote:
> My main takeaways from this article are:
> 1) Lithium is projected to be the dominant automotive battery chemistry
>    until 2030.
> 2) There is a significant industry ramp-up in efforts to both increase
>    energy density and decrease cost.
> 3) The acceleration of this effort is going to help prices come down sooner
>    rather than later or never.

My "take" on it:

1. These numbers are being bandied about by analysts. They have a
    track record about as good as weather forecasters and stock brokers,
    i.e. being right even half the time is considered a success.

2. Given the Cobasys nimh patent situation, lithium looks like the
    only viable short-term option for building large battery packs
    that outperform lead acid.

3. But, research and development has a funny habit of discovering new
    things. Predictions move than just a few years ahead are likely to
    be wildly inaccurate, because they can't take new discoveries into
    account.

4. Finally, if EVs are to be produced in any significant numbers any
    time soon, they can't depend on exotic battery technologies. The
    production capacity isn't there, and the testing hasn't been done
    to insure a low enough risk to satisfy the auto company lawyers
    and bean counters. They will have to go with a battery that already
    exists.
--
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget the perfect offering
There is a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in    --    Leonard Cohen
--
Lee A. Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, leeahart_at_earthlink.net

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Re: Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

Larry Gales
I realize I may be kicking a dead horse here, but the sodium nickel chloride
(ZEBRA) battery and is iron chloride cousin have energy densities of 120
WH/KG and 110 WH/KG, respectively; rival Lithium in energy density,
safety, and long life; have superior all weather operation; would cost
around $120/KWH and $100/KWH, respectively in mass production; and the
iron chloride version has unlimited resources and is much more
politically and environmentally friendly than any other battery.

Its limitations, such as lower power density, the desirability of being
plugged in at least once per week, and thermal leakage (typically ~
$4-5/month in energy costs under normal use and a temperate climate),
would seem to be less important than the far more expensive and resource
limited Lithium batteries.


  -- Larry

On Sun, Jun 28, 2009 at 9:31 AM, Lee Hart <[hidden email]> wrote:

> Rob Trahms wrote:
> > My main takeaways from this article are:
> > 1) Lithium is projected to be the dominant automotive battery chemistry
> >    until 2030.
> > 2) There is a significant industry ramp-up in efforts to both increase
> >    energy density and decrease cost.
> > 3) The acceleration of this effort is going to help prices come down
> sooner
> >    rather than later or never.
>
> My "take" on it:
>
> 1. These numbers are being bandied about by analysts. They have a
>    track record about as good as weather forecasters and stock brokers,
>    i.e. being right even half the time is considered a success.
>
> 2. Given the Cobasys nimh patent situation, lithium looks like the
>    only viable short-term option for building large battery packs
>    that outperform lead acid.
>
> 3. But, research and development has a funny habit of discovering new
>    things. Predictions move than just a few years ahead are likely to
>    be wildly inaccurate, because they can't take new discoveries into
>    account.
>
> 4. Finally, if EVs are to be produced in any significant numbers any
>    time soon, they can't depend on exotic battery technologies. The
>    production capacity isn't there, and the testing hasn't been done
>    to insure a low enough risk to satisfy the auto company lawyers
>    and bean counters. They will have to go with a battery that already
>    exists.
> --
> Ring the bells that still can ring
> Forget the perfect offering
> There is a crack in everything
> That's how the light gets in    --    Leonard Cohen
> --
> Lee A. Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, leeahart_at_earthlink.net
>
> _______________________________________________
> General EVDL support: http://evdl.org/help/
> Usage guidelines: http://evdl.org/help/index.html#conv
> Archives: http://evdl.org/archive/
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>
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Re: Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

Jeff Shanab
In reply to this post by Rob Trahms
>
> I realize I may be kicking a dead horse here, but the sodium nickel chloride
> (ZEBRA) battery and is iron chloride cousin have energy densities of 120
> WH/KG and 110 WH/KG, respectively; rival Lithium in energy density,
> safety, and long life; have superior all weather operation; would cost
> around $120/KWH and $100/KWH, respectively in mass production; and the
> iron chloride version has unlimited resources and is much more
> politically and environmentally friendly than any other battery.
>
> Its limitations, such as lower power density, the desirability of being
> plugged in at least once per week, and thermal leakage (typically ~
> $4-5/month in energy costs under normal use and a temperate climate),
> would seem to be less important than the far more expensive and resource
> limited Lithium batteries.
>
>
>   -- Larry
>  
We are forced to consider available batteries only. :-(

Zebra has them locked up pretty tight and will not deal with anyone not
a card carrying "OEM"

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Re: Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

Evan Tuer
On Wed, Jul 1, 2009 at 1:39 PM, Jeff Shanab<[hidden email]> wrote:

> Zebra has them locked up pretty tight and will not deal with anyone not
> a card carrying "OEM"

That's not true, they're just not very interested in single unit
quantities.  They're certainly willing to deal with small volume
vehicle converters (which several of their customers are, I believe).

And I think that MES-DEA, the only people building them at the moment,
do so under license - I don't know who owns the patent.  Possibly Beta
R&D.

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Re: Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year

Lee Hart
In reply to this post by Larry Gales
Larry Gales wrote:

> I realize I may be kicking a dead horse here, but the sodium nickel chloride
> (ZEBRA) battery and is iron chloride cousin have energy densities of 120
> WH/KG and 110 WH/KG, respectively; rival Lithium in energy density,
> safety, and long life; have superior all weather operation; would cost
> around $120/KWH and $100/KWH, respectively in mass production; and the
> iron chloride version has unlimited resources and is much more
> politically and environmentally friendly than any other battery.
>
> Its limitations, such as lower power density, the desirability of being
> plugged in at least once per week, and thermal leakage (typically ~
> $4-5/month in energy costs under normal use and a temperate climate),
> would seem to be less important than the far more expensive and resource
> limited Lithium batteries.

There are certainly lots of alternative battery technologies. Almost any
two metals can be used to make a battery. Only a few combinations (the
"easy" ones) have become mainstream battery technologies. And even these
easy ones (using lead, nickel, iron, cadmium, hydrogen, or lithium)
turned out to need *major* amounts of R&D to perfect them well enough to
become commodity items.

When there is enough incentive, someone will decide to invest more time
and money to investigate, and perhaps even perfect some new combination.
For example, Tom Edison spent 10 years working on nickel-iron. He got it
to be slightly better than lead-acid; but then gave up. Nickel-iron was
better, but cost more. He couldn't sell enough to make it a commodity item.

Then in the 1980's, Stan Ovshinski of ECD spent another 10 years trying
to improve on the nickel-iron battery. He figured out that managing the
hydrogen it produces was the key. The nimh battery was born. Nimh was
over twice as good as lead acid, and almost made it to commodity status.
But then the patents got tied up, which has restricted it to small cells
and limited markets.

Currently, many people are investigating lithium with various other
metal. This is largely unexplored territory. No one knows how it will
turn out yet. Some combinations have good energy storage, but are very
poor in other areas (life, peak power, safety, etc.) And since all of
them are "new", the R&D expenses are high so the price is high. They
won't get cheap unless a) they solve some of the drawbacks, and b) some
combination manages to become a commodity item, with hundreds of
customers and millions of cells made per week.

But this still leaves large numbers of combinations that have barely
been explored.
--
Ring the bells that still can ring
Forget the perfect offering
There is a crack in everything
That's how the light gets in    --    Leonard Cohen
--
Lee A. Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, leeahart_at_earthlink.net

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Re: Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve in 1 Year........ TV time, too

Bob Rice-2

----- Original Message -----
From: "Lee Hart" <[hidden email]>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[hidden email]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 01, 2009 1:35 PM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] Japan Expects Automotive Li-ion Battery Costs to Halve
in 1 Year


> Larry Gales wrote:
>> I realize I may be kicking a dead horse here, but the sodium nickel
>> chloride
>> (ZEBRA) battery and is iron chloride cousin have energy densities of 120
>> WH/KG and 110 WH/KG, respectively; rival Lithium in energy density,
>> safety, and long life; have superior all weather operation; would cost
>> around $120/KWH and $100/KWH, respectively in mass production; and the
>> iron chloride version has unlimited resources and is much more
>> politically and environmentally friendly than any other battery.
>>
>> Its limitations, such as lower power density, the desirability of being
>> plugged in at least once per week, and thermal leakage (typically ~
>> $4-5/month in energy costs under normal use and a temperate climate),
>> would seem to be less important than the far more expensive and resource
>> limited Lithium batteries.
>
> There are certainly lots of alternative battery technologies. Almost any
> two metals can be used to make a battery. Only a few combinations (the
> "easy" ones) have become mainstream battery technologies. And even these
> easy ones (using lead, nickel, iron, cadmium, hydrogen, or lithium)
> turned out to need *major* amounts of R&D to perfect them well enough to
> become commodity items.
>
> When there is enough incentive, someone will decide to invest more time
> and money to investigate, and perhaps even perfect some new combination.
> For example, Tom Edison spent 10 years working on nickel-iron. He got it
> to be slightly better than lead-acid; but then gave up. Nickel-iron was
> better, but cost more. He couldn't sell enough to make it a commodity
> item.
>
> Then in the 1980's, Stan Ovshinski of ECD spent another 10 years trying
> to improve on the nickel-iron battery. He figured out that managing the
> hydrogen it produces was the key. The nimh battery was born. Nimh was
> over twice as good as lead acid, and almost made it to commodity status.
> But then the patents got tied up, which has restricted it to small cells
> and limited markets.
>
> Currently, many people are investigating lithium with various other
> metal. This is largely unexplored territory. No one knows how it will
> turn out yet. Some combinations have good energy storage, but are very
> poor in other areas (life, peak power, safety, etc.) And since all of
> them are "new", the R&D expenses are high so the price is high. They
> won't get cheap unless a) they solve some of the drawbacks, and b) some
> combination manages to become a commodity item, with hundreds of
> customers and millions of cells made per week.

     Hi EVerybody;

   Lee, as usual, put it in easy-to-understand-terms. And ya KNOW the rest;
those of ya who saw  "Who Killed the Electric Car"?   I STILL dazzle common
sheeple by showing my well warn copy! " I can't BELIEVE that this can
Happen, in OUR America??!" A reaction to a screening last weak.

    Big issue, is, IF, badd-eries were needed, like the A Bomb,in it's time,
by the militery/industriall complex, they would be dumping then at sea,
rather than recycling the ones WE'D need to run our lousy cars!  All it'll
take is yet ANOTHER National Emergency to get 'er done! Here I go, again,
off the deep end?  The TV folks on Channel 8 in New Haven , ya mean you
wern't watching<G>? Boiled my 5 minutes on the local toobe down to my famous
" We JUST got rid of the Best Govt. Oil Money can Buy". Time for change?"Oh
5 seconds? NO mention of OUR EAA chapter, which I DID talk about. Ha Ha! TV
worth Watching? Like my diss-course on "General Murders" on yur local Member
Supported RADIO station!

> But this still leaves large numbers of combinations that have barely
> been explored.

 YOU BET!

    Bob

> Ring the bells that still can ring
> Forget the perfect offering
> There is a crack in everything
> That's how the light gets in    --    Leonard Cohen
> --
> Lee A. Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, leeahart_at_earthlink.net
>
> _______________________________________________
> General EVDL support: http://evdl.org/help/
> Usage guidelines: http://evdl.org/help/index.html#conv
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> Subscription options: http://lists.sjsu.edu/mailman/listinfo/ev
>


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