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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list
With all the used Leafs on and coming on the market, I see a potential
retrofit market available to someone entrepreneurial. These cars have
relatively low mileage, perhaps as low as 20K miles, and are hardly worn
out other than the battery.

It appears unlikely that Nissan will supply a battery replacement, other
than replacing with the original 24kwh (or maybe 30kwh).

If someone can figure out a way to put a 50-60kwh battery in the
existing tray, maybe with cylindrical cells like Tesla, these cars could
be resold. There are over 100,000 used leafs in the US. That may be big
enough number to setup a mass production battery plant.

Used Leafs are selling for, what, $7K - 10K. It's my assumption that the
speculated 200 mile Leaf will sell for around $37K minus the federal tax
credit. I would think that there would be a market for a used, upgraded
to 200 mile range, Leaf and it would easily sell for $20k+. Just my
guess. With an efficient process to build a new battery, can this be
profitable?

Peri

------ Original Message ------
From: "brucedp5 via EV" <[hidden email]>
To: [hidden email]
Cc:
Sent: 18-May-17 1:25:28 AM
Subject: [EVDL] EVLN: EV-newswire posts for 20170518

>
>
>http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/EVLN-Low-mileage-Leaf-EV-glut-sales-slump-2hit-the-U-S-gt-more-cheap-deals-td4686756.html
>EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut/sales-slump 2hit the U.S.> (more cheap
>deals)
>Nissan Says Slump In U.S. Will Hit Net
>A glut of lease vehicles are hitting the used car market, and these
>low-mileage ... In both markets, Nissan plans to launch a range of
>electric
>vehicles, including a ...
>

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list
Why do you say worn out battery at 20K miles?
These cars are a bargain because people don't understand them.
My 2013 is approaching 20K miles, the battery still has 10 bars and I get
4.6 miles/KW.  I live in South Florida and its hot, the AC has been on every
moment I have owned the car.
David Kerzel

-----Original Message-----
From: EV [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Peri Hartman via EV
Sent: Thursday, May 18, 2017 10:03 AM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

With all the used Leafs on and coming on the market, I see a potential
retrofit market available to someone entrepreneurial. These cars have
relatively low mileage, perhaps as low as 20K miles, and are hardly worn out
other than the battery.

It appears unlikely that Nissan will supply a battery replacement, other
than replacing with the original 24kwh (or maybe 30kwh).

If someone can figure out a way to put a 50-60kwh battery in the existing
tray, maybe with cylindrical cells like Tesla, these cars could be resold.
There are over 100,000 used leafs in the US. That may be big enough number
to setup a mass production battery plant.

Used Leafs are selling for, what, $7K - 10K. It's my assumption that the
speculated 200 mile Leaf will sell for around $37K minus the federal tax
credit. I would think that there would be a market for a used, upgraded to
200 mile range, Leaf and it would easily sell for $20k+. Just my guess. With
an efficient process to build a new battery, can this be profitable?

Peri

------ Original Message ------
From: "brucedp5 via EV" <[hidden email]>
To: [hidden email]
Cc:
Sent: 18-May-17 1:25:28 AM
Subject: [EVDL] EVLN: EV-newswire posts for 20170518

>
>
>http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/EVLN-Low-milea
ge-Leaf-EV-glut-sales-slump-2hit-the-U-S-gt-more-cheap-deals-td4686756.html
>EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut/sales-slump 2hit the U.S.> (more cheap
>deals)
>Nissan Says Slump In U.S. Will Hit Net
>A glut of lease vehicles are hitting the used car market, and these
>low-mileage ... In both markets, Nissan plans to launch a range of
>electric
>vehicles, including a ...
>

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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These cars are a bargain because now, for the same prices as a Leaf sold
for a year ago, you can get a Bolt with 200+ mile range. It doesn't
matter if the Leaf battery is in mint condition, the car won't sell for
the same price as a Bolt.

Beyond that, many of the used Leafs have depreciated batteries. Mine,
for example, is at about 75%. I have a 2011 with 27k miles. That drops
their value even more compared to a new Bolt.

Peri

------ Original Message ------
From: "David Kerzel" <[hidden email]>
To: "'Peri Hartman'" <[hidden email]>; "'Electric Vehicle Discussion
List'" <[hidden email]>
Cc:
Sent: 18-May-17 9:43:08 AM
Subject: RE: [EVDL] EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

>Why do you say worn out battery at 20K miles?
>These cars are a bargain because people don't understand them.
>My 2013 is approaching 20K miles, the battery still has 10 bars and I
>get
>4.6 miles/KW.  I live in South Florida and its hot, the AC has been on
>every
>moment I have owned the car.
>David Kerzel
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: EV [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Peri Hartman
>via EV
>Sent: Thursday, May 18, 2017 10:03 AM
>To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
>Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut
>
>With all the used Leafs on and coming on the market, I see a potential
>retrofit market available to someone entrepreneurial. These cars have
>relatively low mileage, perhaps as low as 20K miles, and are hardly
>worn out
>other than the battery.
>
>It appears unlikely that Nissan will supply a battery replacement,
>other
>than replacing with the original 24kwh (or maybe 30kwh).
>
>If someone can figure out a way to put a 50-60kwh battery in the
>existing
>tray, maybe with cylindrical cells like Tesla, these cars could be
>resold.
>There are over 100,000 used leafs in the US. That may be big enough
>number
>to setup a mass production battery plant.
>
>Used Leafs are selling for, what, $7K - 10K. It's my assumption that
>the
>speculated 200 mile Leaf will sell for around $37K minus the federal
>tax
>credit. I would think that there would be a market for a used, upgraded
>to
>200 mile range, Leaf and it would easily sell for $20k+. Just my guess.
>With
>an efficient process to build a new battery, can this be profitable?
>
>Peri
>
>------ Original Message ------
>From: "brucedp5 via EV" <[hidden email]>
>To: [hidden email]
>Cc:
>Sent: 18-May-17 1:25:28 AM
>Subject: [EVDL] EVLN: EV-newswire posts for 20170518
>
>>
>>
>>http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/EVLN-Low-milea
>ge-Leaf-EV-glut-sales-slump-2hit-the-U-S-gt-more-cheap-deals-td4686756.html
>>EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut/sales-slump 2hit the U.S.> (more cheap
>>deals)
>>Nissan Says Slump In U.S. Will Hit Net
>>A glut of lease vehicles are hitting the used car market, and these
>>low-mileage ... In both markets, Nissan plans to launch a range of
>>electric
>>vehicles, including a ...
>>
>
>_______________________________________________
>UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
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>Read EVAngel's EV News at http://evdl.org/evln/
>Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA
>(http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
>
>

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list
In reply to this post by Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list


On 05/18/2017 09:02 AM, Peri Hartman via EV wrote:
> With all the used Leafs on and coming on the market, I see a potential
> retrofit market available to someone entrepreneurial. These cars have
> relatively low mileage, perhaps as low as 20K miles, and are hardly worn
> out other than the battery.

When I bought my new Leaf in 2011, I expected to drive it 5-10 years,
then be able to replace the battery with a cheaper, bigger, better one.
I can hardly tell you how excited I was was to have a reliable, trouble
free factory EV!  I could work with 75+ miles of range but not much
less.  It turned out, my Leaf had a two year battery and Nissan
convinced me to buy a Tesla.  Here we are 6 years into Leaf production
and there seem to be no replacement batteries in the pipeline.  I'm not
sure what price point is necessary to make Leaf replacement batteries
viable.  But, I would guess no more than $5k for a 40+kwh that is far
more reliable than the OEM battery.  It will probably take someone with
both talent and luck to make such an offering.  But, I see it as
possible and do hope it happens.

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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I have two Leaf enclosures in my yard to experiment with and also bought a new battery for installation in the Leaf of anyone interested.
Cor.

> On May 18, 2017, at 5:28 PM, Willie via EV <[hidden email]> wrote:
>
>
>
>> On 05/18/2017 09:02 AM, Peri Hartman via EV wrote:
>> With all the used Leafs on and coming on the market, I see a potential
>> retrofit market available to someone entrepreneurial. These cars have
>> relatively low mileage, perhaps as low as 20K miles, and are hardly worn
>> out other than the battery.
>
> When I bought my new Leaf in 2011, I expected to drive it 5-10 years, then be able to replace the battery with a cheaper, bigger, better one. I can hardly tell you how excited I was was to have a reliable, trouble free factory EV!  I could work with 75+ miles of range but not much less.  It turned out, my Leaf had a two year battery and Nissan convinced me to buy a Tesla.  Here we are 6 years into Leaf production and there seem to be no replacement batteries in the pipeline.  I'm not sure what price point is necessary to make Leaf replacement batteries viable.  But, I would guess no more than $5k for a 40+kwh that is far more reliable than the OEM battery.  It will probably take someone with both talent and luck to make such an offering.  But, I see it as possible and do hope it happens.
>
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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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In reply to this post by Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list
Unfortunately, used EV's are going to pile up in junkyards faster than
gassers, and most will be in very good condition except for the battery.

It will be a shame to see all the power electronics and motors go to waste.

It'll be similar to used EV conversions; "car in great shape, needs
batteries".

No one will be able to offer an aftermarket battery at a low enough
price point, considering the engineering and risk involved.

Any wrecked Bolts yet? I could use a nice 50kW pack for my truck.

Al


On 5/18/2017 10:02 AM, Peri Hartman via EV wrote:

> With all the used Leafs on and coming on the market, I see a potential
> retrofit market available to someone entrepreneurial. These cars have
> relatively low mileage, perhaps as low as 20K miles, and are hardly
> worn out other than the battery.
>
> It appears unlikely that Nissan will supply a battery replacement,
> other than replacing with the original 24kwh (or maybe 30kwh).
>
> If someone can figure out a way to put a 50-60kwh battery in the
> existing tray, maybe with cylindrical cells like Tesla, these cars
> could be resold. There are over 100,000 used leafs in the US. That may
> be big enough number to setup a mass production battery plant.
>
> Used Leafs are selling for, what, $7K - 10K. It's my assumption that
> the speculated 200 mile Leaf will sell for around $37K minus the
> federal tax credit. I would think that there would be a market for a
> used, upgraded to 200 mile range, Leaf and it would easily sell for
> $20k+. Just my guess. With an efficient process to build a new
> battery, can this be profitable?
>

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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With a guaranteed 55 hundred dollar battery by Nissan I don't see any waste happening if you keep your car in good cosmetic shape.. I do see dinged up and funky cars being tossed.  Now well maintained cars why bother junking them.  It will be a matter of supply and demand.  Is that 55 hundred dollars worth keeping a car on the road.  Lawrence Rhodes
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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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Don't you think that depends on the owner's needs? For $5500, you get
your range restored to, say, 80 miles at best. If you really need that
for your normal usage, it's probably worth it.

However, if someone, for $10K can make a replacement battery that gives
you even 150 miles range, now you have a much more useful EV. The bolt
will set you back at least $30K. Even if you could sell your Leaf for
$10K, you'd still be looking at net $10K more for the Bolt.

So, it comes to this:
$5K - restore to 80 miles range
$10K - restore to 150 miles range
$20K - new bolt.

Peri

------ Original Message ------
From: "Lawrence Rhodes via EV" <[hidden email]>
To: "[hidden email]" <[hidden email]>; "[hidden email]"
<[hidden email]>
Cc:
Sent: 20-May-17 10:06:00 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

>With a guaranteed 55 hundred dollar battery by Nissan I don't see any
>waste happening if you keep your car in good cosmetic shape.. I do see
>dinged up and funky cars being tossed.  Now well maintained cars why
>bother junking them.  It will be a matter of supply and demand.  Is
>that 55 hundred dollars worth keeping a car on the road.  Lawrence
>Rhodes
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>

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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On 05/20/2017 12:06 PM, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:
> With a guaranteed 55 hundred dollar battery by Nissan I don't see any waste happening if you keep your car in good cosmetic shape.. I do see dinged up and funky cars being tossed.  Now well maintained cars why bother junking them.  It will be a matter of supply and demand.  Is that 55 hundred dollars worth keeping a car on the road.  Lawrence Rhodes

Well, in a few years, a long in the tooth 80 mile EV may be worth only a
couple of thousand dollars.  Who is going to put $5.5k into a car to
bring it's value up to $2k-$3k?   Think about what a well used Tesla or
Bolt might be worth with a badly degraded battery that will still do
100-150 miles.
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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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Lots of good comments. As a Leaf owner myself, I like the car. Most important,
we could actually *buy* it here in the middle of Minnesota!

Like any car, we'll keep it as long as it provides useful and reliable
transportation. Changes in the market price simply don't matter. Who cares if I
could buy something else, unless the Leaf is wrecked or becomes unrepairable?

You have to remember that almost none of the EVs popular in CA are available in
the Midwest. They are compliance cars; only sold in a few limited areas of the
country. The few remaining EVs that are sold "nationwide" are in fact only
offered in the big cities. There are no hybrid plug-ins here either; no Chevy
Volts, no Prius Plug-Ins.

But... While low prices are bad if you are selling your Leaf; they are a great
deal if you are *buying* one! They are going to give thousands of people their
first chance to own a great EV for a really low price!

Yes, they'll probably have to cart it in from some other area of the country.
Yes, it's likely they'll have to fix it themselves. Yes, the batteries may need
replacement in a few years. But so what? We've been doing that with EVs for
decades! And the Leaf is a heck of a lot nicer than a Citicar or converted
pickup truck!
--
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more
violent. It takes a touch of genius, and a lot of courage, to move
in the opposite direction. -- Albert Einstein
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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So, it comes to this:
$5K - restore to 80 miles range
$10K - restore to 150 miles range
$20K - new bolt.

PeriPeri you are speculating.  I have seen one  person get a used battery degraded Leaf for 2k.  (52mile range).  But Leafs will keep a certain value based on supply and demand which may be hard to predict.  At this point I am sorry I bought a 24kw Leaf for 14k.  A year ago I was ecstatic.   6 months ago I bought a 30 kw Leaf for 13,550.  Dare anyone predict?  Chances are things will get better.  Lawrence Rhodes
**********************************




   
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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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For those of us down under, we look at the prices a leaf can go for in
jealousy

a 60 mile range 24kw leaf here still goes for US$20k


----- Original Message -----
From: "Lawrence Rhodes via EV" <[hidden email]>
To: <[hidden email]>; <[hidden email]>
Sent: Sunday,21 May, 2017 4:31 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut


> So, it comes to this:
> $5K - restore to 80 miles range
> $10K - restore to 150 miles range
> $20K - new bolt.
>
> PeriPeri you are speculating. I have seen one person get a used battery
> degraded Leaf for 2k. (52mile range). But Leafs will keep a certain value
> based on supply and demand which may be hard to predict. At this point I
> am sorry I bought a 24kw Leaf for 14k. A year ago I was ecstatic. 6 months
> ago I bought a 30 kw Leaf for 13,550. Dare anyone predict? Chances are
> things will get better. Lawrence Rhodes
> **********************************
>
>
>
>
>
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> (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
>
>

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

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Indeed. I'm happy with the deal I got, and I love my Leaf. When the
battery ages too badly, THEN I'll re-evaluate and see if it's worthwhile
to replace the battery for $5500 or see what other deals are available
at that time. But yes, in Ohio on the lakefront we don't have nearly as
much to choose from as you folks on the seacoasts.

Cal Frye,
http://www.calfrye.com/evs.html
> Lee Hart via EV <mailto:[hidden email]>
> May 20, 2017 at 2:16 PM
> Lots of good comments. As a Leaf owner myself, I like the car. Most
> important, we could actually *buy* it here in the middle of Minnesota!
>
> Like any car, we'll keep it as long as it provides useful and reliable
> transportation. Changes in the market price simply don't matter. Who
> cares if I could buy something else, unless the Leaf is wrecked or
> becomes unrepairable?

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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

brucedp5
-see if it's worthwhile to replace the battery for $5500-

[Those with experience & knowledge encouraged to give corrections, comments,+]


The cost of a $5k replacement pack + the cost of the dealership's tack on cost$.

What price are there for Leaf EVs?
http://www.iseecars.com/used_cars-t5989-used-nissan-leaf-for-sale#Location=45701&Radius=all&Make=Nissan&Model=LEAF&Condition=used&_t=a&maxResults=15&sort=Price&sortOrder=asc&lfc_t0=MTQ5NTUxODI0NzA4OQ%3D%3D
(I used an Ohio zip code on a nation wide search)

It looks like there are a lot more Leaf EVs on the west coast (like Cal said). Looks like the duck hunter would need to go to where the ducks are to bag their game. But once they have, they'll need to ship it home.

https://www.uship.com/shipping-calculator.aspx
(I entered a 2013 Leaf from 94041 google-ville/facebook-land  to that OH zip, which gave :  )
 We estimate that it will cost  $1263.00  to ship your items 2550.2 miles to Athens, Ohio.

So, whatever bargain Cal or Lee would find, they would need to tack on ~$1.3k to get it home.

Then what to do with the ol' Leaf with the lesser range. Well there likely is an ol' duffer (like myself) near them that does not drive much anymore (only to and from: store, hospital, etc.) that could still use that leaf with the lesser range.

Or, if we could walk Cor through a cloning booth and plant a Cor (Leaf refurbishing pack guru) clone in each state, then the replacing of Cal's or Lee's old tired pack would be less than $5k?
This is why it key to have what good EV deeds (like Cor) are doing well documented on the internet. Then others can learn from what Cor is and has done, keeping all good and safe practices in mind.

Other sources for that info I would not be so sure about (old, dated, unsafe, lets the smoke out, etc.)
http://ecomodder.com/forum/showthread.php/taking-apart-nissan-leaf-battery-fun-profit-31595.html

Which ever person around the county wants to do what Cor is doing, would need a source of Leaf packs (salvage, wrecks, +)
https://www.google.com/search?q=damaged+nissan+leaf+for+sale

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuAXcZmLNmM
The Joker: Where does he get those wonderful toys?

It probably is a lot of skill and diligence work to find those good leaf packs that will have the goodies (good cells) he is after to refurb a Leaf pack (not like something just anyone can or should do?).

So, as Leaf EVs become cheaper and cheaper, will salvage yard offer packs cheaper and cheaper?

Will we also see more and more DIY mods happening to Leaf EVs, like making a short truck or panel van out of Leaf (something Nissan should have done long ago), etc.
?Any thoughts?




For EVLN EV-newswire posts use:
http://evdl.org/evln/


{brucedp.neocities.org}
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Re: EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list
I'm looking forward to 2018 when Maryland is offering a big tax credit on
Home Energy Storage systems.
Im thinking of buyning a used EV and configuring it with a big connector
to the house system. 95% of the time it is providing energy storage.  Or
if it is a dead car, then 100% of the time...  Bob

-----Original Message-----
From: EV [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of brucedp5 via EV
Sent: Tuesday, May 23, 2017 2:21 AM
To: [hidden email]
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Low-mileage Leaf EV glut

-see if it's worthwhile to replace the battery for $5500-

[Those with experience & knowledge encouraged to give corrections,
comments,+]


The cost of a $5k replacement pack + the cost of the dealership's tack on
cost$.

What price are there for Leaf EVs?
http://www.iseecars.com/used_cars-t5989-used-nissan-leaf-for-sale#Location
=45701&Radius=all&Make=Nissan&Model=LEAF&Condition=used&_t=a&maxResults=15
&sort=Price&sortOrder=asc&lfc_t0=MTQ5NTUxODI0NzA4OQ%3D%3D
(I used an Ohio zip code on a nation wide search)

It looks like there are a lot more Leaf EVs on the west coast (like Cal
said). Looks like the duck hunter would need to go to where the ducks are
to bag their game. But once they have, they'll need to ship it home.

https://www.uship.com/shipping-calculator.aspx
(I entered a 2013 Leaf from 94041 google-ville/facebook-land  to that OH
zip, which gave :  )  We estimate that it will cost  $1263.00  to ship
your items 2550.2 miles to Athens, Ohio.

So, whatever bargain Cal or Lee would find, they would need to tack on
~$1.3k to get it home.

Then what to do with the ol' Leaf with the lesser range. Well there likely
is an ol' duffer (like myself) near them that does not drive much anymore
(only to and from: store, hospital, etc.) that could still use that leaf
with the lesser range.

Or, if we could walk Cor through a cloning booth and plant a Cor (Leaf
refurbishing pack guru) clone in each state, then the replacing of Cal's
or Lee's old tired pack would be less than $5k?
This is why it key to have what good EV deeds (like Cor) are doing well
documented on the internet. Then others can learn from what Cor is and has
done, keeping all good and safe practices in mind.

Other sources for that info I would not be so sure about (old, dated,
unsafe, lets the smoke out, etc.)
http://ecomodder.com/forum/showthread.php/taking-apart-nissan-leaf-battery
-fun-profit-31595.html

Which ever person around the county wants to do what Cor is doing, would
need a source of Leaf packs (salvage, wrecks, +)
https://www.google.com/search?q=damaged+nissan+leaf+for+sale

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuAXcZmLNmM
The Joker: Where does he get those wonderful toys?

It probably is a lot of skill and diligence work to find those good leaf
packs that will have the goodies (good cells) he is after to refurb a Leaf
pack (not like something just anyone can or should do?).

So, as Leaf EVs become cheaper and cheaper, will salvage yard offer packs
cheaper and cheaper?

Will we also see more and more DIY mods happening to Leaf EVs, like making
a short truck or panel van out of Leaf (something Nissan should have done
long ago), etc.
?Any thoughts?




For EVLN EV-newswire posts use:
http://evdl.org/evln/


{brucedp.neocities.org}

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ileage-Leaf-EV-glut-tp4686758p4686833.html
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