Re: No, electric cars (still) aren't crashing the grid. (Batteries HELP it)

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Re: No, electric cars (still) aren't crashing the grid. (Batteries HELP it)

Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list
You are missing the point.

The batteries WILL be there in every EV on the planet.  And with just
something like 75% penetration, the amount of energy in those batteries is
something like 5 times the TOTAL grid capacity of the entire USA (or
something like that).

Ignoring the potential of that amount of storage is pretty foolish.  I'm
just saying that engineers and economists will eventually see the light and
the marriage of solar power and all that ALREADY invested battery storage
will merge in magical ways.   Such as charging with excess solar and driving
more at night in those jobs that can easily accommodate the shift.   Such as
EV mail and package delivery... Bob, WB4APR

-----Original Message-----
From: EV [mailto:[hidden email]] On Behalf Of Michael Ross via EV
Sent: Thursday, January 04, 2018 12:35 PM
To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List <[hidden email]>
Cc: Michael Ross <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [EVDL] No, electric cars (still) aren't crashing the grid.
Again: Good News: EVs Are Not ...

I disagree on the batteries are "there."  I doubt we can store the "energy
of man" in batteries.  And currently we are no where near close to that.
It is too much, and we won't be able to use batteries for that kind of
massive storage.

I think Musk estimated 250 Gigfactories just to do all EVs, let alone other
industrial and residential uses.

The grid is a super storage medium.  If we were more interconnected
worldwide, then a series of large solar arrays could do it all.  You just
need enough of them facing the sun at any given time and then batteries can
take their better place as mobile storage. This arrangement beats the heck
out of digging all the copper and cobalt needed for stationary storage.



On Thu, Jan 4, 2018 at 12:19 PM, Robert Bruninga via EV <[hidden email]>
wrote:

> Thanks for the LIVE California load page. That page today shows the
> famous ​ ... SNIP>
>
>
...

>
> ​">
> The batteries in EV's are there.
> ​">
> ​ ...
>
>
> Bob, WB4APR
>
> --
Michael E. Ross
(919) 585-6737 Land
(19) 901-2805 Cell and Text
(919) 576-0824 <https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones> Tablet,
Google Phone and Text




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Re: No, electric cars (still) aren't crashing the grid. (Batteries HELP it)

Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list
The context of these comments it the idea that stored electric power in
batteries can take over from fossil fuel energy; and that the capability in
batteries is "there." I don't believe it.

The construction at scale of batteries, and battery manufacturing
facilities is going to take a very long time.  For example, the mining
capacity for copper, cobalt, lithium, and so on DOES NOT EXIST to produce
the amount of Li-ion batteries.  The same can be said for any other
candidate materials.  Current capacity serves the current market. It can't
be any other way. If you want a bunch more, it will take a while; and when
demand outstrips supply cost goes way up.

Therefore, *batteries are not "there."*  Nor will they be there any time
soon.  *If you run the numbers,* instead of just wishing, it is unlikely
grid storage can be done at all with batteries alone.  It will require
other very significant storage tech. Even supplying cells for more than a
million cars is not currently possible. I happily own Tesla stock on the
thinking they have a leg up on supplying cells to the auto industry. But
there is no denying it:  the supply of batteries is meager.

Batteries are a fine solution for mobile applications, airliners, trucks,
cars, even boats. However, for enabling all renewable power on the grid,
batteries do not make sense.

It will take too many batteries.  Also they are not material efficient for
stationary applications - some other solutions are needed.

Pump storage is bad because there are limits to how much land we want to
flood.  Nuclear?  I don't like it though plenty of people do. I am hoping
in the long time frame that fusion gets worked out (then it may not be
necessary to have grid storage at all, though mobile storage might still be
useful). Lot of talk about compressed air, I tend not to believe that is
possible.  I think hydrogen could be useful.  Conversion efficiencies are
not good, but great big tanks underground are within the realm of
possibility. Some other chemical reaction might work, but I can't guess at
that.

BentMike

On Thu, Jan 4, 2018 at 3:26 PM, Robert Bruninga via EV <[hidden email]>
wrote:

> You are missing the point.
>
> The batteries WILL be there in every EV on the planet.  And with just
> something like 75% penetration, the amount of energy in those batteries is
> something like 5 times the TOTAL grid capacity of the entire USA (or
> something like that).
>
> Ignoring the potential of that amount of storage is pretty foolish.  I'm
> just saying that engineers and economists will eventually see the light and
> the marriage of solar power and all that ALREADY invested battery storage
> will merge in magical ways.   Such as charging with excess solar and
> driving
> more at night in those jobs that can easily accommodate the shift.   Such
> as
> EV mail and package delivery... Bob, WB4APR
>
>
--
Michael E. Ross
(919) 585-6737 Land
(
​9​
19) 901-2805 Cell and Text
(919) 576-0824 <https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones> Tablet,
Google Phone and Text




<http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail>
Virus-free.
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Re: No, electric cars (still) aren't crashing the grid. (Batteries HELP it)

Electric Vehicle Discussion List mailing list
Michael Ross via EV wrote:
> The context of these comments it the idea that stored electric power in
> batteries can take over from fossil fuel energy; and that the capability in
> batteries is "there." I don't believe it.

Let's see... Wikipedia says the 2016 peak CA load was 46,232 Mw on July
27 (and it's been going DOWN in each successive year). The California
Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) established an energy storage target
of 1,325 MWH by 2020 (2 years from now). That would support about 3% of
the peak load for an hour. Presumably, that would be enough to cover the
expected peaks/brownouts.

> Therefore, *batteries are not "there."* Nor will they be there any time
> soon.  *If you run the numbers,* instead of just wishing, it is unlikely
> grid storage can be done at all with batteries alone.  It will require
> other very significant storage tech.

Cleantechnia.com says there are about 250,000 EVs in CA as of 1/20/2017.
If each had a 25kwh battery pack and P2G charger, they would provide
6,250 MWH of storage. That's several times more than what CPUC is
proposing. So it looks like enough battery capacity is already "there"
on the streets. They just have to find a way to harvest it.

> Even supplying cells for more than a million cars is not currently possible.

That does not sound quite right. First, let's just look at dumb old
lead-acids: They are the most-used battery for EVs (since industrial EVs
and golf carts exceed the number of on-road auto company EVs). There are
already over a BILLION cars on the planet, and every one has a lead-acid
battery. We add another 50 million cars per year, and every one of them
adds another battery as well. When you add the lead-acid batteries
produced for other applications, they are building over 100 million
lead-acid batteries a year.

Manufacturers could easily produce 10% more per year. That's 10 million
extra batteries, which could produce a million EVs with (say) ten golf
cart battery-size packs each.

A similar situation exists if you want to use lithium cells. They are
already being mass-produced for laptops, cellphones, and many other
consumer gadgets. This market dwarfs the EV market! Last year, 3 billion
cellphones, and 100 million laptops were sold. In excess of 50
gigawatthours of lithium cells were produced for them. If we assume an
EV needs 25 kilowatthours of battery, that's enough to make 2 million
EVs right there. Factories already under construction are expected to
double producion in just 2 years.

So lack of batteries is not going to hold back EVs. It's more likely
that sales will be limited by consumer demand and the high prices the
auto companies are charging.

--
Whether we or our politicians know it or not, Nature is party to all
our deals and decisions, and she has more votes, a longer memory,
and a sterner sense of justice than we do. -- Wendell Berry
--
Lee Hart, 814 8th Ave N, Sartell MN 56377, www.sunrise-ev.com
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